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THE VALUE – The key to betting

13 July, 2020
EL VALUE - La clave sobre las apuestas
  • What is performance
  • What the fee actually represents.
  • It is not about winning or losing, nor about hitting the winner (nor can it be).
  • Whether a bet is good or bad only depends on the odds. No one can know who will win.
  • Gambling is exclusively a game of odds.
  • Everything can happen in one game, but not in a large number of games.


As we have seen in the video, the key to betting is to recognize a good odds that allow a real probability of obtaining a profit in the medium or long term. The question is, what is probability?
Probability is a measure of certainty associated with an event or future event whether it does or does not happen.
One aspect that differentiates humans from animals is our ability to foresee and anticipate what may happen. Since the beginning of history, the human being has tried to presage dangers and opportunities, key to the survival of man and his evolution. The probability is usually expressed between 0 and 1. 0 means that it will never happen and 1 means that it will always happen, in all cases. An example of 0 or something that will never happen is unicorns flying and landing on your roof. Instead an obvious example of 1, is that the sun will rise tomorrow. It is a scientific fact that is going to happen, otherwise we would have a problem.


Before delving into the meaning or what fees are, it is necessary to understand the difference between ‘payout’ and earnings. When you make a bet, the bet belongs to the bookmaker. If you win, the bookmaker will return your bet and pay you the corresponding winnings. You can’t count on getting your stake back as profit because it was his to begin with. If you bet 1 and the bet wins:
Participation 1
Gain 1
Paid 2
The fee is the index that the bookmaker will pay us for each euro that we have deposited, in the event that we win the bet. The higher the odds, the higher the payout will be reported by the bookmaker. Do you have any doubt? Fran details it better in the following video.

The relationship between odds and probability

There is an inverse relationship between odds and probability. If we place a bet on the winning team, we know that the favorite team has a better chance of winning, therefore they will have a low odds. The underdogs have a greater probability of losing, therefore they will have a higher odds. This allows us to extract the following reading. The lower the odds, the higher the probability of success for a bet on the winner, but the lower the profit.

The probability according to the odds in the bets

As Fran has well explained, probability is the key in the betting world. Calculating the probability based on the odds number is a fairly simple formula. Probability formula: (1 / odds) x 100 =% From Magazine Sport we want to provide you with all the possible tools to facilitate your bets. We offer you a tool for the probability calculation, according to the quota number.

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